Global Business & Trade Studies

Global Business & Trade Studies

INVESTIGATING THE TRADE CAPACITY AND DEVELOPMENT PROSPECTS BETWEEN IRAN AND UGANDA USING THE GRAVITY MODEL

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Department of Business Administration, Kyambogo University
10.220.34/gbts.2026.2104084.1010
Abstract
Economic and commercial Relations between the Islamic republic of Iran and the republic of Uganda present a captivating case for south-south cooperation, characterized by significant untapped potential. Despite possessing complementary economic structures, Iran with its advanced industrial base and Uganda with its rich agricultural and resource endowment bilateral trade volumes have remained sub optimal. This study investigates the factors driving and constraining this relationship and quantifies the latent trade capacity using the gravity model of trade for the period of 1995-2023. The model incorporates economic mass (GDP), geographical distance, and a Linder variable to capture economic similarity. The results indicate that while geographical distance is a significant barrier, the economic sizes of both nations are strong positive drivers of trade. The model reveals a substantial gap between actual and potential trade flows, suggesting that with the optimal utilization of existing capacities and the removal of key obstacles like sanctions, financial/banking barriers, the volume of mutual trade can be expanded significantly, fostering technology transfer, economic diversification, and sustainable development for both countries.
Keywords